The Toronto Raptors’ decision to trade for Brandon Ingram ahead of the 2024-25 NBA trade deadline raised eyebrows, but their follow-up move—signing him to a three-year, $120 million extension—has only deepened the skepticism. While acquiring a one-time All-Star for a package centered around Bruce Brown Jr., Kelly Olynyk, and a first-round pick represented solid value on paper, the broader implications of this deal suggest Toronto may have overplayed its hand.
A Risky Investment with Questionable Returns
For a team sitting near the bottom of the Eastern Conference standings, doubling down on a core of Ingram, Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Jakob Poeltl feels like a short-sighted bet on mediocrity. Toronto’s payroll is now locked into a group that lacks a definitive No. 1 option and is devoid of high-end shooting. That is a dangerous combination in today’s NBA, where offensive efficiency is often dictated by spacing and star power.
Ingram’s game, while undeniably skilled, does not align seamlessly with the Raptors’ existing roster. His preference for midrange jumpers—38.4% of his offense this season has come from 10 feet to the three-point line—limits his ability to stretch defenses. His free-throw rate has nearly been cut in half from last season, a direct consequence of his declining rim pressure (just 11.7% of his attempts have come at the basket). Pairing him with Barnes and Barrett, two forwards who also struggle to provide consistent three-point volume, only amplifies Toronto’s spacing concerns.
Financial Straitjacket with No Clear Path Forward
The financial repercussions of this move could be even more damaging than the fit concerns. Ingram’s extension pushes Toronto into dangerous salary cap territory, with $174 million now tied up annually in their core players. Given the NBA’s new CBA, which penalizes teams with bloated payrolls by limiting roster flexibility, the Raptors have essentially boxed themselves into a corner. Their ability to add meaningful upgrades through free agency is now nonexistent, leaving trades and draft luck as their only avenues for improvement.
Compounding the issue is Ingram’s durability. The 27-year-old has played just 18 games this season due to an ankle injury, continuing a troubling trend of inconsistent availability. In his nine-year career, he has surpassed 70 games played just once, averaging only 57 games per season since 2017. Betting on him as a cornerstone piece requires a leap of faith that his body has yet to justify.
If Toronto’s front office envisions Ingram as a long-term fit, the outlook appears bleak. But if this extension was made with the intention of rehabilitating his trade value for a future move, the plan becomes only slightly more defensible. The problem is that Ingram’s trade market was already limited when New Orleans sought to move him, and now, with a $40 million annual salary and a player option in 2027-28, finding a willing trade partner could prove even more difficult.
The Raptors’ championship odds reflect the skepticism surrounding this move. Despite adding Ingram, their title chances have actually worsened, dropping from +50,000 in the preseason to +100,000 post-extension. That sharp decline underscores the belief that Toronto has built a team with no clear ceiling, one that is now financially committed to a core unlikely to escape the NBA’s dreaded middle tier.
At best, the Raptors have secured a talented scorer in his prime. At worst, they have trapped themselves in a financial and structural dilemma that will take years to unwind.
